FOUS30 KWBC 170813
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 17 2025 - 12Z Sat Jan 18 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

The latest CAM guidance suite has some signals for heavy rainfall
in the vicinity of the Florida Keys along a quasi-stationary
frontal boundary during the day Friday, and the model consensus is
for most of this convection to remain over the Florida Straits and
the western Bahamas. Although some of these cells may affect
coastal areas of South Florida, the coverage and rainfall rates are
low enough to preclude any risk areas at this time.

Hamrick


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 18 2025 - 12Z Sun Jan 19 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH FLORIDA...

A corridor of moisture convergence in the warm sector of a
developing Southeast U.S. surface low, in the presence of anomalous
PWs for this time of year, will fuel the development of multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these cells may
train over the same areas across portions of northern Florida and
into far southern Georgia, with some rainfall rates perhaps
reaching an inch per hour. The overall trend has been for slightly
lower overall QPF with this event in the latest 00Z model guidance
suite, so the existing Marginal Risk area from the prior Day 3 has
been reduced in size some. Although the UKMET was one of the
wettest solutions for its 12Z run, it is less expansive with the
area affected, more in line with the other guidance for its 00Z
run. The NAM remains one of the less impactful solutions. It is
possible that the Marginal Risk area could be removed if model
trends continue lower in future updates.

Hamrick

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 19 2025 - 12Z Mon Jan 20 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hamrick
$$
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