AWUS01 KWNH 012034
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-020233-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0777
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
434 PM EDT Thu Aug 01 2024

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012033Z - 020233Z

Summary...Expanding convective coverage and increasing intensity
suggests at least some flash flood threat likely exists this
afternoon into evening over portions of northeast NM.

Discussion...Convection is expanding in coverage and intensity
across northeast NM over the past couple hours. Easterly post
frontal upslope flow into the terrain is helping with convective
initiation across this region. Meanwhile in the upper levels there
is at least some upper level divergence over northeast NM within
the right entrance region of a 300mb jet that is over CO and KS.
Over the past 3 hours SBCAPE has increased by ~600 j/kg, with
values now between 1500-2500 j/kg. Effective deep layer shear is
around 20 kts, which may be just enough to help sustain some multi
cell structure of convection through the afternoon hours.

Given the favorable environment and recent uptick in convective
growth per radar and satellite imagery, isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding appear probable through the afternoon
hours. Expect this convection will be capable of locally dropping
1-2" of rain within an hour and expect to see an increasing flash
flood threat over the next several hours. The increasing
convective coverage suggests some of the more sensitive burn scars
in the region may be impacted, which could result in locally
significant flood impacts.

Chenard

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37040432 37020365 36970312 36700300 35780303 
            34970406 34640555 34810661 35130684 36320716 
            36700700 36960602 
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