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From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
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Mike Powell | All | HVYSNOW: Probabilistic He |
January 12, 2025 9:49 AM * |
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FOUS11 KWBC 120743 QPFHSD Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 243 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2025 Valid 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025 - 12Z Wed Jan 15 2025 ...Northern Rockies/Western High Plains... Days 1-2... The southwest side of a positively-tilted upper-level trough will carry waves of vorticity across the northern Rockies today with additional snowfall over the higher peaks of central Montana into Wyoming as well as across northern NM. Another wave will sink southward through eastern Montana tomorrow with a bit more light snow for the Black Hills. WPC probabilities for at least 6 inches of snow are >50% in the Little Belt and Big Snowy Mountains as well as the Big Horns. ...Great Lakes... Days 1-3... Area of low pressure over MN this morning will lift northeastward across northern WI into the U.P. of Michigan and Lake Superior this afternoon as it takes on a negative tilt in response to an approaching upper low moving southward out of central Canada. This will favor much of the U.P. and the northeastern Arrowhead of MN for modest snow today beneath the TROWAL as the system occludes. WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are high (>70%) over the northeastern Arrowhead (~Grand Marais to Grand Portage), over the Keweenaw Peninsula into the Porcupine Mountains, and also around the Hiawatha National Forest via southerly flow ahead of the front. By D2, the deep upper low will cross into northern MN with a core of 850mb temps < -20C. Sfc trough will still linger across Lake Superior as the main area of low pressure only slowly drifts eastward, allowing height falls to push into the U.P. to continue the snow through Monday. Downstream, the cold front will continue eastward and help foster in a westerly to WSW flow over the eastern Great Lakes, allowing lake effect snow to increase into NW Lower Michigan first, then downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Core of the upper low will continues its path southeastward across the Great Lakes Mon into Tue eventually pushing off the Northeast coast by the end of the period. However, NW flow will remain which will continue the lake effect snow over all the Great Lakes, but especially off Lakes Erie/Ontario D3. For the D2-3 period, WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow are highest off Lake Erie from Erie, PA to the Buffalo southtowns across the Chautauqua Ridge. Localized totals may be in the 12-18 inch range. East of Lake Ontario, the Tug Hill will help maximize snow totals there, especially south of Watertown in the higher elevations (Redfield) where WPC probabilities for at least 12 inches of snow are >70%. For the Day 1-3 period, the probability of significant icing of at least 0.10" is less than 10 percent across the CONUS. Fracasso $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) |
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