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From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
Mike Powell | All | DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic |
July 30, 2024 9:35 AM * |
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ACUS02 KWNS 300603 SWODY2 SPC AC 300601 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a relatively zonal mid-level pattern will exist across the CONUS with several embedded shortwave troughs. The easternmost of these mid-level troughs will advance east across the Appalachians and off the Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. A weak, potentially convectively enhanced shortwave trough, may move through the northwesterly flow across the Midwest/southern Great Lakes. The strongest/most pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will cross the central Plains during the day on Wednesday. At the surface, a weak surface low will be located in the Nebraska vicinity with a very moist (mid to upper 70s dewpoints) airmass to its east. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Temperatures will warm into the 90s to low 100s F in the central Plains south of a surface low across NE/KS. Where this hot, deeply-mixed airmass overlaps a slightly cooler and less mixed airmass across eastern Kansas and Nebraska, very strong to extreme instability is anticipated. Thunderstorms are expected along the surface trough from eastern South Dakota to the Texas Panhandle given the hot airmass and height falls associated with the mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Plains. The hot, and deeply mixed boundary layer across Kansas will support a threat for severe wind gusts. However, more organized storms are anticipated across eastern Nebraska and South Dakota where moderately strong mid-level flow (potentially approaching 45-50 knots), overspreads the region. This will result in shear favorable for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts initially with upscale growth likely during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. Overnight maintenance/intensity of this MCS remains questionable as upper-level forcing associated with the mid-level trough continues, while inhibition increases and the low-level jet veers. ...Ohio Valley... A MCS will likely be ongoing somewhere from eastern Missouri to western Indiana on Wednesday morning. Destabilization is expected to be rapid with inhibition eroded by mid-morning. This may allow for some re-intensification of this MCS as it moves into the lower Ohio Valley and eventually into Tennessee before eventually likely struggling as low-mid level temperatures increase. In the wake of this MCS, an outflow could be a focus for isolated thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon/evening. The environment would be favorable for severe weather with moderate to strong instability and 45-50 knots of mid-level flow. However, height rises through the day will likely keep any storm coverage relatively sparse. ..Bentley.. 07/30/2024 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) |
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