ACUS11 KWNS 291535
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291535 
NCZ000-SCZ000-291700-

Mesoscale Discussion 2319
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0935 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

Areas affected...central NC and northeast SC

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 726...

Valid 291535Z - 291700Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 726
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind and a brief tornado or two will
spread eastward through midday.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived QLCS has recently produced severe gusts in
the Charlotte area (51 kt at KCLT and 53 kt at KEQY). Downstream
instability is very weak to negligible, and lightning activity has
diminished with the northern portion of the QLCS. However, very
strong low-level flow (as noted on KCAE and TCLT VWPs prior to
arrival of the line) and the current organized nature of the QLCS
will continue to support a damaging-wind threat through the
remainder of the morning. The strong low-level flow/shear will also
support some potential for a brief line-embedded tornado. 

Longevity of the ongoing QLCS remains uncertain, due to the very
weak instability. However, modest clearing and diurnal heating in
advance of the QLCS will result in some steepening of low-level
lapse rates, with a damaging-wind threat potentially spreading into
northeast SC and a larger portion of central NC into early
afternoon.

..Dean.. 12/29/2024

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   36298076 36438010 36447959 36167896 34637851 33607849
            33137889 33027954 33308027 33968025 35368020 36298076 

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