ACUS01 KWNS 281246
SWODY1
SPC AC 281244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts
of the central and northern Plains this afternoon into tonight.

...South Dakota/Minnesota...
At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected this
afternoon initially across parts of western/central South Dakota, in
areas near/north of the front and in the vicinity of the surface
low. Mid-level flow of 30-40 kt atop low-level easterlies will
provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a
couple of supercells will be possible initially. Hail and isolated
severe gusts will be a threat with the initial discrete development.
Outflow consolidation could support development of an
upscale-growing cluster by early evening, which may accelerate
east-southeastward toward southeast South Dakota and the broader
Siouxland vicinity, with a threat of severe gusts potentially
exceeding 75 mph.

Farther northeast across Minnesota, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to redevelop by late afternoon near the effective front.
Outside of some residual MCV enhancement, a notable weakness in
mid-level flow, especially into northern Minnesota, will tend to
limit deep-layer shear and storm organization across the region.
That said, moderate buoyancy and a modest enhancement to low-level
flow could support localized damaging winds, and perhaps an instance
or two of hail with the strongest updrafts.

...Central High Plains...
While large-scale forcing/ascent will be somewhat weaker with
southward extent, strong heating and removal of MLCINH will support
at least isolated storm development from western/central Nebraska
into western Kansas, and possibly northeast Colorado in vicinity of
a surface trough. Moderate to strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates,
and moderate deep-layer shear will support a conditional risk of
severe storms (potentially including a couple of supercells) with
any diurnal development in this region. Overall storm coverage
remains a bit uncertain, but the environment will conditionally
support potential for both severe wind gusts and hail.

...Eastern Nebraska and Iowa/northern Missouri...
An MCV across east-central Nebraska around sunrise should continue
slowly eastward and generally weaken today. This MCV, along with a
modest low-level jet and semi-persistent warm/moist advection, may
influence intensifying thunderstorm development this afternoon
within a moderately unstable environment across Iowa/northern
Missouri. Even if consequential diurnal development does not occur,
an increasing low-level jet could support increasing storm coverage
across parts of the region later this evening into the overnight,
which could be accompanied by a threat for isolated strong/damaging
gusts and/or hail.

...Wyoming/Southern Montana...
Relatively high-based convection is expected to develop this
afternoon in advance of a shortwave trough moving eastward out of
the Pacific Northwest. A couple of stronger outflow-driven
cells/clusters will be possible, with an attendant threat for
isolated severe gusts.

...Tennessee Valley including portions of MS/AL/TN...
Rather widespread convection is expected to further increase into
the afternoon in association with a mid/upper-level trough moving
northeastward out of the Ozarks vicinity. Somewhat stronger heating
and mid-level flow along the southern periphery of this trough could
support a few strong storms including the possibility of localized
tree damage. However, with generally modest deep-layer shear and
weak mid-level lapse rates, the potential for any organized or
sustained severe threat across this region should be limited.

..Guyer/Grams.. 07/28/2024

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