ACUS02 KWNS 280601
SWODY2
SPC AC 280600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible in portions of the
Midwest and the northern Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level ridge will be centered over the central CONUS on
Monday with a trough near the West Coast and a closed low near New
England. Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs will move through
the flow and may be the trigger for strong to severe thunderstorm
activity. A broad surface trough will extend from the Upper Midwest
to the central Plains with a very moist airmass east of this surface
trough.

...Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will cross the Dakotas during the day
Monday and lead to increasing ascent amid a moderately unstable
environment. 35 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will accompany this
mid-level trough and lead to 35 to 45 knots of effective shear.
Considerable uncertainty remains with the degree of destabilization
across the Dakotas. Forecast soundings show surface dewpoints
ranging from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F which will significantly
impact the degree of instability within the warm sector and likely
impact the coverage and intensity of the severe weather threat.
Nonetheless, the ascent associated with the shortwave trough and an
uncapped environment should result in storm development Monday
afternoon in the Dakotas. Moderate shear and steep lapse rates will
support a threat for large hail (potentially 2+ inch if greater
instability scenarios verify) and the deeply mixed boundary layer
will support a severe wind threat. The severe weather threat is
expected to wane shortly after sunset given increasing inhibition
and the low-level jet being displaced well southeast.

...Midwest...
A MCS/cluster of storms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of
eastern IA/MO and western Illinois on Monday morning. The low-level
jet is expected to weaken during the morning hours which will likely
lead to the demise of the morning convection. In its wake,
significant destabilization is anticipated with a moderate to
strongly unstable airmass expected. Weak height rises will likely be
somewhat counteracted by continued weak low-level isentropic ascent
which may be sufficient for storm development along the remnant
outflow Monday afternoon/evening. Uncertainty in exact storm
evolution remains high, but there is at least some potential for
upscale growth into a MCS, particularly across Illinois, which may
necessitate greater severe weather probabilities.

..Bentley.. 07/28/2024

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