AWUS01 KWNH 261353
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-261852-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0734
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
953 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast NC...North-Central to
Northeast SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261352Z - 261852Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and very efficient convection with high
rainfall rates will be impacting areas of south-central NC into
north-central and northeast SC going through midday. Eventually
areas of southeast NC will also get into some of this activity
this afternoon. Some flash flooding is possible.

DISCUSSION...A very small-scale low-level circulation and
associated vort center is situated near the NC/SC border region
which is yielding some low-topped and extremely efficient
convection across areas of south-central NC and especially areas
of north-central SC. There is also evidence of a surface trough
axis extending eastward ahead of the weak low down across
northeast SC and some adjacent areas of southeast NC.

At least modest, but persistent moisture convergence along this
trough axis ahead of the low center along with a gradual increase
in boundary layer instability via the diurnal heating cycle should
facilitate a persistence and localized expansion of convection
going through the early afternoon hours. There is already a bit of
an instability gradient oriented in close proximity to this trough
from northeast SC into southeast NC where MLCAPE values are as
high as 1000+ J/kg.

The 12Z RAOB data from CHS and ILM show a deep tropical
environment with tall/skinny CAPE profiles. This will strongly
support a highly efficient warm rain set-up for very heavy
rainfall rates that will be capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour.

Outside of the recent HRRR guidance, the early morning guidance is
not exactly handling the ongoing activity particularly well.
However, with the current radar and satellite trends, and slow
cell-motions/efficient rainfall set-up, some localized storm
totals reaching 3 to 5 inches will be possible going through early
this afternoon.

Some areas of flash flooding will be possible as a result, and
especially with some areas already seeing moist antecedent
conditions.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...ILM...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35207976 35067890 34547870 34237946 34268042 
            34588086 34908083 35118045 
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