ACUS11 KWNS 291254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291254 
FLZ000-291500-

Mesoscale Discussion 2317
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024

Areas affected...the FL Keys and extreme south Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291254Z - 291500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A waterspout moving onshore as a tornado is possible
across parts of the Keys into the far south Florida Peninsula
through midday.

DISCUSSION...An MCV has been drifting east in the offshore waters,
west of the southern Everglades and north of the Lower Keys, this
morning. The airmass to its south, across the Keys, has maintained
mid to upper 70s surface temperatures coupled with low 70s dew
points. The 12Z KEY sounding sampled this air mass well, which is
characterized by poor mid-level lapse rates but MLCAPE near 1000
J/kg. While low-level shear within the sounding and BYX VWP data has
been modest and is expected to remain so, veering of the wind
profile with height is yielding a favorable environment for
occasional supercell structures within a regenerative storm cluster.
As this activity likely drifts closer to land through midday, a
brief tornado is possible.

..Grams/Edwards.. 12/29/2024

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   24938214 25198139 25298074 25338028 25168023 24898046
            24588121 24428178 24618236 24938214 

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