ACUS01 KWNS 231257
SWODY1
SPC AC 231255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Today's overall risk for organized severe thunderstorms is expected
to remain relatively low, but a few severe storms may occur across
the Mid-Atlantic States/Carolinas.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast States...
The air mass over the region will remain very moist with
Precipitable Water values in excess of 2 inches, contributing to a
moderately unstable and minimally inhibited boundary layer this
afternoon. A modest increase in mid-level flow may occur today from
the southern Appalachians northeast across the mid-Atlantic, but
low-level winds will remain weak. While locally heavy rainfall will
be the most common hazard regionally, wet microbursts could cause a
few instances of localized wind damage this afternoon, with a
somewhat greater potential across parts of North Carolina and
Virginia.

...Midwest...
Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front
from southern Wisconsin across Iowa and southern Minnesota this
afternoon, with the potential for multiple rounds of storms in some
locations. Moderate buoyancy should be in place near the front,
however deep-layer shear should generally remain at 25-30 kt (or
less) for much of the day. Some risk for hail and gusty winds will
exist with any stronger storm, but will defer any potential
introduction of low severe probabilities to subsequent outlooks.

...Arizona/Lower Colorado River Valley...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of
Arizona again this afternoon, with relatively weak northeast
mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations.
Despite very hot temperatures and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer,
overall confidence that storms will cluster and produce more than
localized strong/damaging gusts remains too low to introduce severe
probabilities.

..Guyer.. 07/23/2024

$$
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