ACUS02 KWNS 281735
SWODY2
SPC AC 281734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast,
Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday.

...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity...

A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast
from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on
Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early
in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast.
Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region
through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is
expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern
FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible.  With northward
extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a
narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC.

Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into
north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE.
Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with
northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless,
fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic
strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger
instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from
SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and
marginally severe hail will exist.

...Ohio Valley...

A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will
overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts
northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F
dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant
surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated
with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization
(generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear.
Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible,
though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this
convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a
conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the
early to mid afternoon.

..Leitman.. 12/28/2024

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