ACUS03 KWNS 230821
SWODY3
SPC AC 230820

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday).

...Discussion...
A lead southern-stream shortwave trough will tend to weaken across
the Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley on Wednesday, while a
secondary shortwave trough modestly amplifies as it progresses
east-southeastward over the southern Rockies toward far west Texas
Wednesday night. Some thunderstorms may linger during the day across
Louisiana and the upper Texas coast, and possibly into other parts
of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Related to the secondary shortwave
trough, isolated elevated thunderstorm development may also occur
late Wednesday night across far eastern New Mexico into
west/northwest Texas including the Texas Panhandle, with forecast
soundings plausibly showing a couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE across this
region by daybreak (12z) Thursday.

Additionally, a few thunderstorms could again occur near the coastal
Pacific Northwest/northern California Wednesday night as a shortwave
trough/frontal band approaches and mid-level lapse rates steepen.
Little or no severe-weather potential is currently expected with any
of these scenarios, largely attributable to minimal buoyancy in each
instance.

..Guyer.. 12/23/2024

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