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From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
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Mike Powell | All | HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfa |
December 23, 2024 8:30 AM * |
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FOUS30 KWBC 230758 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 258 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 Day 1 Valid 12Z Mon Dec 23 2024 - 12Z Tue Dec 24 2024 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON... The next atmospheric river will make headway into southwest OR and northwest CA coastal plain with a protrusion of elevated IVT inland as we work the back end of the period. Consistency among all major deterministic, both global and hi-res indicate a widespread area of 2-4" with locally as high as 5.5" in-of the impacted areas, mainly north of Santa Rosa up into southwest OR. Latest HREF probs for >3" are very high (80+%) across areas like the King and Siskiyou Ranges along with the Foothills of Mount Shasta. Despite the elevation, a strong warm nose with this event will send snow levels spiking upwards with the base pushing close to 8000ft MSL for the rain/snow delineation point. This will create a better heavy rain threat even away from the coast with areas inland also maintaining a threat for localized flash flood concerns, especially as we move into early Tuesday morning. The heaviest rainfall will likely be within those coastal ranges which are some of the harder areas to flood, so that will help limit the extensive flash flood prospects we see with some events. The progressive nature of the AR regime will also aid in the anticipated impacts, however the threat is still within the low to medium end of the MRGL risk threshold leading to a continuance of the MRGL from the previous forecast issuance. The area(s) with the greatest potential are those that are still dealing with burn scar aftermath with very sensitive runoff capabilities. Those are included within the MRGL risk, especially across northern CA. Kleebauer Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Dec 24 2024 - 12Z Wed Dec 25 2024 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ..Sierra Foothills.. Atmospheric river from previous period will bleed into the D2 time frame with the primary shortwave trough quickly propagating inland with increased forcing upon arrival into the Northern and Central Sierra, less so for areas back into the coast due to negative vorticity advection. Locally enhanced rainfall will be plausible the initial portion of the period with the heaviest likely aligned along those Foothill regions of the Northern Sierra, mainly within elevations below 8000ft, although snow levels will fall below 7000ft towards the end of the more significant precipitation time frame late Tuesday morning. Additional totals of 1-2" are possible within a 6-10 hour window prior to the precip ending leading to a low-end potential for flash flood concerns just outside the Valley that extends from Redding down to Sacramento. Higher runoff capabilities due to terrain orientation and soil moisture anomalies running closer to normal will present some potential for flood concerns despite this being an event that doesn't maintain a more prolonged precipitation signature. The previously inherited MRGL risk was generally maintained, however some of the risk area was cut out due to provide a gradient between the Sierra locations that will trend to more winter precipitation and the areas that will remain liquid through much of, if not the entire duration of the event. ..Arklatex and Lower Mississippi Valley.. Surface ridge over the eastern CONUS will slowly drift further to the northeast allowing for a more broad return flow regime to affect areas across the Western Gulf into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A steady flux of higher theta_E's will begin moving northward out of the Western Gulf, carrying as far north as the Red River before stabilizing as we reach into OK. Aloft, a digging mid- level shortwave will exit the Central Rockies with sights on the Southern Plains leading to enhanced left exit region dynamics and surface cyclogenesis in-of the Red River Valley with a cold front extending from the base into TX and a small warm front lifting northward around the Arklatex. The classic mid-latitude cyclogenesis will create a sector of modest destabilization with the primary axis aligned from southwest to northeast across east TX up through the Arklatex, eventually extending northward into AR and southern MO. The current indications are the best organized convective schemes will be situated around the small warm sector along and ahead of the approaching cold front with relative buoyancy and increasing upstream shear allowing for scattered convection to develop late Tuesday afternoon through the evening. As of this time, the deep layer moisture pattern is still relatively meager compared to some of the more impactful events that occur in this area of the country, however there is enough instability and PWAT anomalies creeping between 1-1.5 deviations above normal to constitute some isolated flash flood concerns, mainly within those stronger cores. SPC D2 risk includes a targeted Marginal Risk for severe weather, overlapping the inherited MRGL risk ERO for the period. Areal rainfall averages will be between 0.5-1" across east TX and 0.75-1.5" across AR, but there is a growing consensus among the CAMs to have scattered instances of a quick 2-3" of rainfall within the best convective environment during the pattern evolution with a 5-10% risk of >3" within the tail end of the 00z HREF neighborhood probs. This threat is likely still within the lower end of the MRGL risk threshold, but the convective premise was enough to maintain general continuity from the previous issuance. Kleebauer Day 3 Valid 12Z Wed Dec 25 2024 - 12Z Thu Dec 26 2024 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON AND OREGON... Another atmospheric river surging off the Pacific will make an appearance into the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday afternoon through the end of the D3 cycle. Model guidance is keen on a surge of moisture represented by fairly elevated IVT signatures on the order of 600-800 kg/ms within the global ensemble blend. There is some discrepancy between one of the main deterministic (GFS) and the other global members carrying more of a 25th percentile outcome in total precip due to a less robust IVT pulse comparatively. When assessing the ensemble means from the GEFS compared to the deterministic, the ensemble sways more in favor the scenario of greater magnitudes into the IVT channel leading to a more pronounced atmospheric river regime. This trend leaned more into maintaining continuity in the inherited MRGL risk across the PAC NW, although a few changes were made in the proposal. The first change was to scale back on the eastern extension of the MRGL risk due to considerably less deep layer moisture advecting inland at this juncture for the D3 time frame. FFG indices are still pretty high all the way towards the windward side of the Cascades, so the prospects for FFG exceedance were pretty low and generally fall below the 5% threshold criteria. The second change was to cut out the higher elevations in the Olympic Peninsula due to the primary ptype trending towards snow with more emphasis on rainfall closer to the coast and below 4000ft MSL. The risk area still encompasses the lower elevations surrounding the Olympics and channels into the Olympic National Forest on the southern flank of the Peninsula. Anticipate totals of 2-4" with locally as high as 5" in the risk area extending from coastal southwest OR up through the Olympic coast of WA. Kleebauer $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) |
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