ACUS02 KWNS 220524
SWODY2
SPC AC 220522

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

Upper troughing will continue over the Great Lakes into the
Mid-South on Tuesday. Some minor increase in mid/upper flow is
forecast as the trough deepens over the Great Lakes, while the
subtropical high over the western Atlantic pushes closer to the
Mid-Atlantic coast. While this will result in some modest increase
to mid/upper southwesterly flow over the central Appalachians into
southern New England, minor height rises and midlevel warming also
will occur. A very moist airmass will exist across the Mid-Atlantic
vicinity amid weak to moderate instability, supporting scattered to
widespread thunderstorm activity. However, generally unfavorable
vertical wind profiles coupled with poor midlevel lapse rates will
limit organized severe thunderstorm potential. Nevertheless, high PW
values and pockets of steepening low-level lapse rates where
stronger heating occurs could still result in sporadic wet
microbursts and locally strong gusts.

Further east, a weak surface low will shift from the upper MS Valley
toward Lower MI and eastern Ontario. As this occurs, a cold front
will develop southward across the Upper Midwest into IA, northern IL
and Lower MI. A seasonally moist airmass and a band of weak to
moderate instability will exist ahead of the front, supporting
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. However, vertical
shear will remain very weak, and thunderstorm activity will likely
remain pulse-like/disorganized, limiting severe potential.

..Leitman.. 07/22/2024

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