ACUS02 KWNS 210529
SWODY2
SPC AC 210527

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...

The persistent upper-level pattern featuring a ridge over the west
and a trough in the central/eastern U.S. will continue on Monday.
Some very minor enhancement to mid/upper west/southwesterly flow is
possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachian
vicinity as several minor vorticity maxima migrate through the
eastern periphery of the upper trough. However, generally weak
deep-layer flow will prevail over the CONUS. A moist summertime
airmass will exist east of the Rockies, while pockets of stronger
destabilization supports widespread thunderstorm activity. Overall,
organized severe potential appears low.

...PA/WV into the Mid-Atlantic/Chesapeake Bay vicinity...

Vertically veering, but weak low-level flow beneath 25-40 kt
southwesterly flow near/above 500 mb will result in 30-40 kt
effective shear magnitudes. Typically this would aid in organized
thunderstorm activity. However, lapse rates are forecast to remain
very poor over the region. Furthermore, areas of morning convection
are depicted across parts of NC/VA with broader areas of cloud cover
possible further north. Overall, destabilization is forecast to be
weak. If any pockets of stronger heating occur, a few strong storms
could produce wet microbursts given PW values nearing 2 inches.
However, lackluster thermodynamic profiles suggest thunderstorm
activity should largely remain disorganized and sub-severe,
precluding severe probabilities at this time.

...Eastern ND/central MN/northwest WI...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a
southward-moving surface boundary Monday afternoon and evening.
Surface dewpoints in the mid-60s F will contribute to MLCAPE around
1000-1500 J/kg. Vertical shear is expected to remain very weak over
the region, but sufficient instability, along with modestly steep
low-level lapse rates may support brief strong thunderstorms. Gusty
winds may accompany this activity, or perhaps small hail given
somewhat cool temperatures aloft, but overall severe potential
appears low.

..Leitman.. 07/21/2024

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