AT2k Design BBS Message Area
Casually read the BBS message area using an easy to use interface. Messages are categorized exactly like they are on the BBS. You may post new messages or reply to existing messages! You are not logged in. Login here for full access privileges. |
Previous Message | Next Message | Back to General Weather-related Discussi... <-- <--- | Return to Home Page |
|
||||||
From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
![]() |
Mike Powell | All | HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfa |
December 21, 2024 9:16 AM * |
||
FOUS30 KWBC 210756 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 256 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2024 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sat Dec 21 2024 - 12Z Sun Dec 22 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Kleebauer Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun Dec 22 2024 - 12Z Mon Dec 23 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Kleebauer Day 3 Valid 12Z Mon Dec 23 2024 - 12Z Tue Dec 24 2024 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON... The next, more prominent atmospheric river is forecast to impact the NorCal coast into southwestern OR by the end of the D2 into D3 time frame with a better aligned IVT pulse anticipated for areas that saw significant rainfall totals over the past 7-10 days. The heaviest rain will be confined to the immediate coast with a southwest to northeast oriented moisture flux expected leading to upslope flow a bit orthogonal to the coastal terrain extending from the King Range up through the Siskiyou in southwest OR. Current forecasted totals within the ensemble suite are between 2-4" with some deterministic output between 4-5" at max. This is generally within the confines of a low-end MRGL risk threshold when assessing historical precedence for these types of events. The main difference between this event and the previous was the primary hydrometeor will come in the form of rainfall, even inland as lower heights will be confined offshore and a flood of warmer air in the boundary layer will protrude inland. Only the highest elevations of the Northern Sierra and Mount Shasta will have a higher threat for winter ptypes, so this points some of the more sensitive areas of northern CA into play where burn scar remnants are located. The inherited MRGL from the D4 was relatively maintained for the areas outlined in CA, but the prospects for flash flooding were pretty low given the QPF signature for locations north of southwestern OR, so decided to pull back the northern extension along the OR coast. The MRGL extends inland to include those more sensitive areas within the complex terrain, even extending to the foothills of the Northern Sierra where heavier precip will make its way by the end of the forecast cycle and likely carrying beyond to the D4 period. Kleebauer $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) |
||||||
|
Previous Message | Next Message | Back to General Weather-related Discussi... <-- <--- | Return to Home Page |
![]() Execution Time: 0.016 seconds If you experience any problems with this website or need help, contact the webmaster. VADV-PHP Copyright © 2002-2025 Steve Winn, Aspect Technologies. All Rights Reserved. Virtual Advanced Copyright © 1995-1997 Roland De Graaf. |