ACUS02 KWNS 190540
SWODY2
SPC AC 190539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

A weak mid/upper flow regime is forecast across most of the CONUS on
Saturday. Upper troughing will envelop most of the central and
eastern portions of the country while an amplified upper ridge
persists across the western states. A convectively enhanced
shortwave impulse/vorticity maxima related to convection in the Day
1/Friday time period may be located over the central Plains/Mid-MO
Valley Saturday morning. Surface outflow tied to this activity could
be located over southern portions of the central Plains or northern
parts of the southern Plains, but confidence in this scenario is
low. Further east, surface high pressure will be in place over the
Midwest, with a stalled boundary on the southern periphery of the
surface high extending from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic
vicinity. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place across parts
of the central/southern Plains into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic and
areas of scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible.

Overall, vertical shear will remain weak and thunderstorm activity
largely disorganized. Some modestly enhanced vertical shear is
possible over the central Appalachians/North Carolina vicinity. This
may overlap with surface dewpoints in the 70s and strong heating,
resulting in a corridor of moderate destabilization. Effective shear
magnitudes around 25-30 kt could support semi-organized multicell
clusters capable of producing locally damaging gusts.

Additional strong storm may develop over parts of KS into western OK
and the adjacent OK/TX Panhandles during the late afternoon/early
evening. Severe potential may become more probable if aforementioned
outflow boundaries exist over the region, providing some focus for
stronger convection. However, uncertainty is too high to include
probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2024

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