ACUS02 KWNS 230702
SWODY2
SPC AC 230700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few locally severe storms could occur across parts of central and
East Texas on Tuesday.

...Central/East Texas...
A southern-stream shortwave trough will amplify and spread
east-southeastward on Tuesday across the south-central Plains toward
the Ozarks. Low-level moisture will modestly increase across the
Texas coastal plain into south-central/east Texas during the day.
Lower 60s F surface dewpoints will become increasingly common inland
ahead a southeast-moving cold front that will extend from
north-central Texas southwestward toward the Edwards Plateau Tuesday
afternoon.

In proximity to a surface wave and near/north of a warm front,
scattered convection should be ongoing Tuesday morning across far
north/northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity/southeast Oklahoma.
Modest diurnal destabilization (up to 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) should
occur ahead of the southeastward-moving effective cold front, mainly
across south-central to east/southeast Texas including the I-35/I-45
corridors. As this occurs, a diurnally related intensification of
storms is expected near the southeast-advancing front, and possibly
also in the nearby free warm sector during the afternoon. A few of
these storms could be severe.

Effective shear will not be overly strong (30-35 kt), including some
flow weakness continuing to be noted in model soundings around 2-3
km AGL. Even so, some organized storm modes including weak/transient
supercells could occur with marginally severe hail and/or a few
locally severe wind gusts, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

...Northern California/Pacific Northwest...
As a prominent upper-level trough and related frontal band moves
inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern
California coastal areas and interior valley on Tuesday, early in
the day with the frontal band and with post-frontal cellular
convection during the day as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen. A
more limited/isolated thunderstorm potential will also exist across
other parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest.

..Guyer.. 12/23/2024

$$
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