ACUS02 KWNS 170536
SWODY2
SPC AC 170534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WELL AS FROM THE VIRGINIA
TIDEWATER ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon across the central and southern High Plains as well as
from the Virginia Tidewater across the eastern Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern early Thursday will likely be characterized by an
expansive upper ridge extending from the Southwest into western
Canada and an upper trough extending from western Ontario into the
Mid MS Valley. The western ridging is expected to persist throughout
the period, while the eastern troughing deamplifies as an embedded
shortwave trough progresses eastward across Ontario, the Lower Great
Lakes and New England. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will
persist between these two features over the High Plains.

The surface pattern will likely feature a strong high over the Upper
Midwest Thursday morning, with this high expected to gradually shift
eastward throughout the day. A cold front is expected along the
southern and eastern periphery of this high, beginning the period
extended from NJ southwestward across the TN Valley and Mid-South
into north TX. Some modest southeasterly/southerly progress of this
front is possible throughout the day, particularly across the
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, but it is also expected to become
increasingly diffuse from the Southeast westward into TX. Scattered
to numerous thunderstorms are expected along this front during the
afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are also anticipated across the
Rockies and Intermountain West beneath the upper ridging, with some
chance for a few storms across the High Plains as well.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated along the western
periphery of the surface ridging. Daytime heating will promote deep
boundary-layer mixing, but there should still be enough low-level
moisture to promote airmass destabilization. Low-level convergence
along the lee trough may result in convective initiation from
eastern WY/southwest SD/NE Panhandle southward into northeast NM.
Thunderstorms may also develop across the high terrain before then
progressing eastward/southeastward into the destabilized and
modestly buoyant airmass downstream. Southeasterly/easterly surface
wind veering to northwesterly aloft will promote moderate shear and
the potential for a few more organized bowing line segments capable
of damaging gusts. Isolated hail is also possible within the
stronger, more cellular storms.

...Eastern Carolinas into the VA Tidewater...
Thunderstorm development appears probable along the front as it
moves east-southeastward across the region during the afternoon.
Afternoon dewpoints in the low 70s will help support moderate
buoyancy, despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures and poor
lapse rates. The stronger westerly flow aloft will displaced north
of the region, but moderate mid-level flow is still expected over
the region, promoting the potential for a few more organized storms
as well as bowing line segments. Damaging gusts are the primary
severe hazard.

..Mosier.. 07/17/2024

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