ACUS11 KWNS 160126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160126 
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-160330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1642
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0826 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...Northern Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 541...

Valid 160126Z - 160330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 541 continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for significant wind gusts upwards of 80-95
mph and embedded QLCS tornadoes will continue as a severe MCS pushes
east across northern Illinois.

DISCUSSION...The evolution of a severe MCS is progressing as
expected with two primary bowing segments evident in regional radar
across north-central IL and to the east of the Davenport, IA area.
Several embedded circulations have been noted as well as multiple
reports of wind gusts over 75 mph (including one gust of 93 mph in
Stephenson county, IL) across eastern IA and northwest IL. Latest
WoFS guidance continues to capture recent convective trends well and
depicts the potential for similar wind speeds within the two bowing
segments over the next couple of hours. Given aforementioned reports
and favorable environmental conditions downstream, these forecasts
appear to be reasonable. Observed storm motion tracks and WoFS
timing guidance both suggest the MCS will be approaching the lower
Lake Michigan shore between 02 to 03 UTC with a slightly later
arrival time for eastern IL/far western IN.

..Moore.. 07/16/2024


ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40579052 40779009 41058996 41229002 41478971 41738928
            41968915 42358908 42518898 42488784 42358769 41888753
            41638744 40788751 40218794 39918868 39988923 40279004
            40579052 
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)