ACUS01 KWNS 160049
SWODY1
SPC AC 160047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA....

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
MODERATE RISK AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging squall line will surge across northern Illinois and extreme
southern Wisconsin this evening, subsequently advancing into
northern Indiana/southern lower Michigan overnight. Winds may gust
in excess of 75mph along the surging bow.

...01z Update...

Southern influence of upper MS Valley short-wave trough appears to
be encouraging convection across the upper Midwest early this
evening. Latest radar data exhibits marked upscale growth in an MCS
that now extends from southern WI, arcing southwest across northwest
IL into southeast IA. Substantial precip shield/cold pool is
evolving which will aid forward propagation downstream into a
reservoir of buoyancy that is characterized by MLCAPE in excess of
4000 J/kg, as far east as portions of Indiana. Numerous severe wind
gusts have been reported with this evolving complex and this will
continue as the leading squall line surges across northern IL toward
southern Lake Michigan (including greater Chicago Metro). While
damaging winds will be common, embedded tornadoes are expected along
the QLCS.

Downstream across NY, scattered damaging wind reports continue with
a broken squall line that is advancing into the Hudson Valley. This
convection is moving through the primary instability axis, and
gradual weakening is expected further east across New England.

..Darrow.. 07/16/2024

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