AWUS01 KWNH 131122
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-131630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0614
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
722 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Areas affected...Southern and Central Missouri, far eastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131121Z - 131630Z

Summary...Rapid growth of thunderstorms associated with a
shortwave will produce heavy rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr through
late morning. Some slow movement of these cells could result in
1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows
rapidly expanding thunderstorms from eastern Kansas into
west-central Missouri. These thunderstorms are developing near the
edge of a stationary front that is slowly lifting northward, and
downstream of a shortwave noted on GOES-E WV imagery pivoting
across eastern KS. Forcing across MO is being aided as well by a
modest LLJ of 20-30 kts out of the SW, and a weak but diffluent
RRQ of a modest jet streak dropping south into the Central Plains.
The LLJ is also helping to draw higher PW air northward into the
region, with the recent SPC RAP analysis indicating a bubble of
1.5-1.75 inch PWs in the vicinity of the convection, which is
overlapping favorable MUCAPE of around 2000 J/kg.

The evolution this morning is challenging due to a lack of support
from high-res CAMs, but at least the 06Z HRRR and the 06Z NAMNest
have some indication of development, although both are either too
weak or displaced. However, the 00Z RRFS members, including the
operational p1 and experimental p2, p3, and p4 are initializing
much better to current radar, and suggest continued upscale growth
of this activity through late morning. The ingredients support
this evolution until the LLJ veers and weakens after around 16Z,
so the RRFS is used heavily for this MPD. The anomalous PWs and
warm cloud depths will continue to support efficient warm-rain
processes, and rainfall rates have a 30-50% chance of exceeding
1"/hr, with short-duration 2+"/hr rates also possible. Corfidi
vectors angled strongly to the right of the mean flow suggest
backbuilding of convection will occur ahead of the shortwave, and
this will lower net storm motions to just around 10 kts resulting
in 1-3" of rainfall with locally higher amounts in some areas.

Although confidence in evolution is modest, the favorable
ingredients, RRFS support, and FFG that is compromised in some
areas to just 1.5"/3hrs from recent rainfall suggests at least
isolated instances of flash flooding are possible during the next
several hours.


Weiss


ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39179311 39169243 38929127 38459062 37759050 
            37279091 36799233 36739291 36839404 37079489 
            37359553 37589559 37919545 38389510 39039415 
            39119381 
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