FOUS30 KWBC 170751
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 17 2024 - 12Z Wed Dec 18 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

Model consensus is for increasingly active showers late Tuesday 
afternoon into Tuesday night/early Wednesday along the east central
to southeast coast of Florida. Low level easterly to southeasterly
flow in an axis of PW values 1.5 to 2+ standard deviations above 
the mean expected to persist into the east central to southeast 
Florida coast, with models showing an axis of defined boundary 
layer convergence in this low level inflow axis parallel to the 
east central to southeast coast. There will be potential for very 
slow moving cells along the coastal regions, supporting locally 
very heavy rainfall amounts and an urban flash flood threat. HREF 
neighborhood probabilities are high (50-90%) for 3"+ amounts from 
Cape Canaveral, south to Miami, while the 5"+ neighborhood 
probabilities are high (60-90%) from near West Palm Beach, south to
Miami. The best hi res overlap, evident in the greatest EAS 
probabilities for 2"+ amounts, is from near West Palm, south to 
just north of Miami. 

Oravec


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 18 2024 - 12Z Thu Dec 19 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 19 2024 - 12Z Fri Dec 20 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec
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