AWUS01 KWNH 080927
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-081525-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0591
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
526 AM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...Northeast to East-Central NM...TX Panhandle into
Northwest TX...Southwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080925Z - 081525Z

SUMMARY...Locally redeveloping and persistent areas of heavy
showers and thunderstorms this morning will likely favor concerns
for instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The GOES-E IR satellite imagery is showing some rapid
cloud-top cooling across areas of northeast to east-central NM in
association with slow-moving areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms. Additional areas of convection are also seen
developing over parts of the TX Panhanlde.

This convection is largely being driven by the persistence of a
moderately buoyant airmass characterized by MUCAPE values of 1000
to 1500 J/kg, and with aid of steep mid-level lapse rates.
Furthermore the convection is in close proximity to a surface
front that has been settling gradually southward overnight.
Shortwave energy/forcing aloft digging down across the region and
also an axis of favorable low-level moisture convergence are
further supporting the convective activity and its localized
expansion.

Some of the convection has been tending to take on some linear
modes with training concerns while other areas of convection are
characterized by slow cell-motions and concerns for cell-mergers.
The MRMS data and dual-pol radar suggest there may be a fair
amount of hail in some of these storms, but the environment is
conducive for rainfall rates to still reach as high as 1.5
inches/hour.

Given some of the slow cell-motions and training considerations,
some rainfall totals may reach 3 to 4+ inches going through the
early morning hours as this activity generally moves off to the
east-southeast. Impacted areas should continue to be portions of
northeast to east-central NM, the TX Panhandle, far northwest TX,
and possibly some portions of southwest OK in time. Isolated to
widely scattered instances of flash flooding are likely over the
next several hours.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36400410 35810196 35550023 35459810 34619766 
            33999821 33659951 33590164 33970350 34780471 
            35410518 36120502 
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