AWUS01 KWNH 072118
FFGMPD
OKZ000-080100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0584
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
518 PM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Areas affected...Central and Southwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 072117Z - 080100Z

SUMMARY...Training storms along I-40 in west central Oklahoma are
producing local rates approaching 3 inches per hour. Flash
flooding is likely.

DISCUSSION...Training storms have developed along a stationary
boundary across west central Oklahoma this afternoon. Drier air
moving southward north of the front is colliding with much more
moist and unstable air streaming northward out of Texas. The
result is a stationary boundary where the 2 air masses are
clashing...resulting in training thunderstorms roughly right along
I-40 west of Oklahoma City.

While the storms are drifting eastward with time, CAMs guidance
despite poorly handling the ongoing convection suggest that the
storms will gradually shift southward with time, which is why
portions of southwest Oklahoma are included in the threat area.
Certainly short-term the threat is along I-40 from Elk City to
Oklahoma City, but expect the typical way storms evolve in this
environment is to "follow the instability, so they should
gradually begin to drift south with time. Further, the drier air
to the north should also begin to shift the frontal boundary south.

Urban and small stream flash flooding is the primary threat with
these storms, with the urban threat increasing should stronger
storms make their way into the Oklahoma City metro.

Wegman

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35719726 35629696 35339685 34729692 34409801 
            34499938 34989979 35669957 35699809 
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