ACUS02 KWNS 060555
SWODY2
SPC AC 060554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected in parts of the central and southern
Plains on Sunday. Some tornado risk will exist as tropical cyclone
Beryl approaches the middle Texas Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level trough will be located across much of the CONUS
on Sunday. Shortwave perturbations within this broader cyclonic flow
are expected to impact portions of the central/southern Plains
during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a somewhat complex
surface pattern is expected. A convective outflow reinforced weak
warm front appears to likely set up roughly along the
Kansas/Oklahoma border. A modest surface low will deepen in the
southern High Plains. A weak dryline feature will extend southward
from this low. Along the middle/upper Texas Gulf Coast, low-level
wind fields will increase with the approach of TC Beryl late Sunday
night into Monday.

...Far southern Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas...
Convection is expected to be ongoing in parts of western/central
Kansas Sunday morning, but is expected to weaken as the low-level
jet decreases in strength. Dewpoints south of the boundary/outflow
are expected to be in the upper 60s F. Heating of this moist airmass
will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop by early/mid
afternoon. Convergence along the boundary will increase as the
surface low to the west deepens. Mid-level ascent by mid/late
afternoon will also aid in increasing convective coverage. A few
initial supercells are possible given 40-50 kts of effective shear
parallel to the boundary, but upscale growth appears likely to occur
quickly. Along the dryline in the eastern Texas Panhandle, storm
coverage may be less, but 35-45 kts of effective shear across the
boundary will promote a few supercells. The degree and timing of
upscale growth along the dryline is less clear and could be
modulated by outflow from storms near the Kansas/Oklahoma border.

In terms of hazards, steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate effective
shear, and initially favorable storm modes will bring a risk of
large hail. Some hail could exceed 2 inches, but uncertainty of
supercell coverage and the expected quick upscale growth limits
confidence. Near the surface low, a tornado is possible. Again, this
potential is likely to remain low given short duration of discrete
storm modes. The main hazard will be severe/damaging winds as
convection grows upscale.

...Middle/Upper Texas Gulf Coast...
TC Beryl is expected to intensify into a hurricane as it approaches
the middle Texas Gulf Coast per the latest NHC forecast. Low-level
wind fields to the right of the track will become favorable for
low-level rotation, especially where upper 70s F dewpoints
infiltrate the coastal counties. A risk for tornadoes will exist
from near the Corpus Christie area to the Sabine River. This threat
will increase late Sunday night into Monday morning.

...Southeast Colorado into Southwest Kansas...
Some surface moisture will be maintained into these areas. Dewpoints
in the mid 50s F seem probable up against the terrain in southeast
Colorado with slightly greater amounts in southwest Kansas. Storm
initiation is most likely within the terrain with a few storms being
capable of severe winds and marginally severe hail. Coverage is less
certain along the outflow into Kansas, but low severe probabilities
will be maintained for possible development during the afternoon.

..Wendt.. 07/06/2024

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