AWUS01 KWNH 050907
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-051505-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0563
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
506 AM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into West-Central and Southwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050905Z - 051505Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to broken areas of convection will continue
this morning across areas of the TX Panhandle down into
west-central and southwest OK. Sufficiently high enough rainfall
rates coupled with slow cell-motions may foster at least localized
areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows broken areas of
cold-topped convection over areas of the TX Panhandle with the
activity tending to expand further in coverage off to the east
into areas of west-central to southwest OK.

The activity is focused along an instability gradient north of a
stationary front focused across areas of western and northern TX.
MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000+ J/kg are in place and there is 
relatively divergent flow aloft working in tandem with a corridor
of stronger low-level moisture convergence to help facilitate the
development and expansion of the convection.

Some additional increase in the concentration of convection may
occur from the TX Panhandle down into southwest OK going through
the mid-morning hours, and the cell-motions are expected to be
rather slow which will favor some potential for locally excessive
rainfall totals.

The PWs are running about 2 standard deviations above normal over
the region, and rainfall rates are expected to locally reach 1 to
2 inches/hour with the stronger storms. The 00Z/06Z HREF guidance
favors some spotty totals going through mid-morning of 2 to 4
inches and this may result in a localized concerns for some flash
flooding.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36380063 36199964 35599819 34699799 34239887 
            34430077 34880216 35380274 35810283 36370216 
            
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