ACUS02 KWNS 050555
SWODY2
SPC AC 050553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from southern South Dakota into
the southern High Plains on Saturday, with the highest coverage
expected in parts of the central Plains. Large hail (some greater
than 2 inches) and severe winds are the expected hazards.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the CONUS with the
exception of the West Coast. A shortwave trough is expected to move
into the central Plains by the afternoon. At the surface, a high
pressure system will shift eastward into the Mid-South and lower
Ohio Valley. Around the western flank of this anticyclone, moisture
will return northward. A modest surface low will develop in the
vicinity of the NE/CO/KS border, though models have some
disagreement on how deep this low will become. The main focus for
thunderstorm development will be near this surface low and farther
east along a weak warm front/theta-e boundary.

...Central/eastern Nebraska...northwest/north-central Kansas...
Thunderstorm development is expected during the mid/late afternoon.
Upper 50s F dewpoints are expected to support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE
(with some areas perhaps near 2000 J/kg). Relatively cold
temperatures aloft (around -12 C at 500 mb) and northwesterly
mid/high-level flow with 35-40 kts of effective shear will promote
some initial risk for supercells capable of large hail (some 2+
inches). Given the larger temperature-dewpoint spreads, upscale
growth will likely occur later in the convective cycle. Severe wind
gusts would become more common as this process unfolds. There is
some uncertainty with regard to the most favorable area for
potential MCS development. There is some signal in guidance that
this could occur in western Kansas where slightly greater low-level
moisture will be present, mid-level lapse rates will be steeper, and
the low-level jet will be focused. Significant severe gusts are
possible with an organized MCS, but confidence in placement remain
quite low at this time.

...Southern High Plains...
With the surface high helping to push moisture back into the
southern Rockies and parts of West Texas, a few strong to severe
storms are possible during the afternoon. Convection/outflow is
possible prior to the D2/Saturday period on Friday afternoon/evening
in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. As a result, there is some
uncertainty as to how far east the severe threat will reach. Shear
will be weaker this far south, but steep low/mid-level lapse rates
will promote a risk of severe winds and isolated large hail in the
strongest storms.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A weak cold front will move through the region during the
afternoon/evening. While a richly moist (70+ F dewpoints) airmass
will be in place, the stronger mid-level winds will generally be
displaced farther to the northwest. Furthermore, mid-level heights
will be near neutral and convergence along the front will be rather
weak. Most model guidance continues to suggest limited storm
coverage for those reasons. No highlights will be added, but a
strong storm or two remains possible.

..Wendt.. 07/05/2024

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