FOUS30 KWBC 050738
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024 - 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Otto


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024 - 12Z Sat Dec 07 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 07 2024 - 12Z Sun Dec 08 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS...

A low-level jet streaming Gulf moisture northward across eastern
Texas will interact with a strong shortwave trough which will move
northeastward out of New Mexico and into the central Plains. PWATs
along the upper Texas coast are expected to increase to above 1.75
inches by Saturday night. While shower and light rain activity is
expected especially over western portions of the Marginal Risk area
during the day Saturday, the heaviest rain will be on Saturday 
night due to the typical nocturnal strengthening of the LLJ. 
Instability will be the primary limiting factor as MUCAPE values 
struggle to even get above a couple hundred J/kg. Portions of the 
Marginal Risk area will get some rain Friday and Friday night, such
that this much stronger second round may train over some areas 
that due to previous rain may have more saturated soils. Isolated 
flash flooding is possible, especially in urban and flood prone and
low lying areas.

Wegman

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