FOUS30 KWBC 040721
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 04 2024 - 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent. Strengthening warm/moist advection across east Texas
and Louisiana will result in widespread shower and thunderstorm 
activity most of the day through early Thursday. Several areas of 
2-4 inch rainfall totals are expected especially from southeast 
Texas into central Louisiana. The rain will fall in areas that have
not experienced appreciable rainfall over at least the past week, 
and models are inconsistent with depiction of any focused corridors
of heavier and/or training convection that could result in larger-
scale flash flood concerns. FFG thresholds are also relatively 
high. <5% probabilities are maintained for this outlook with the 
expectation that any flash flood concerns should be isolated at 
best.

Cook


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024 - 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024 - 12Z Sat Dec 07 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman
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