ACUS02 KWNS 250559
SWODY2
SPC AC 250557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible over parts of the Northeast
and Mid Atlantic on Wednesday.

...Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast/Mid Atlantic...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the
upper Midwest toward the lower Great Lakes and Northeast on
Wednesday, with some potential for convectively enhanced vorticity
maxima to move east-northeastward ahead of the primary shortwave.
Rather moist low-level westerly flow will support potential for
moderate diurnal destabilization from eastern OH into parts of the
Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic, with stronger heating/mixing
possible into parts of the southern Mid Atlantic. Scattered
thunderstorm development will be possible Wednesday afternoon
along/ahead of a cold front across parts of OH/PA and southern NY,
which will spread eastward into the evening.

Strengthening flow in the 700-500 mb layer will support sufficient
effective shear for storm organization, with potential for a few
organized clusters and perhaps a couple of supercells. Damaging wind
and perhaps isolated hail will be possible, along with some
potential for a brief tornado if a supercell can be sustained.

The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across parts of the Mid
Atlantic, due to increased confidence in storm coverage within a
somewhat favorable environment across parts of MD/VA.

...Lower Ohio Valley into the Ozarks vicinity...
Uncertainty regarding storm potential and evolution remains quite
high from the lower Ohio Valley vicinity into the Ozarks. Elevated
convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across
multiple areas. An outflow-influenced front will be draped somewhere
across the region through the day, to the south of a reinforcing
cold front that will move southward from the upper Midwest.

Modest northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will be in place across
the region. Some diurnal intensification or redevelopment of storms
will be possible near the front and any remaining outflow
boundaries. The northwesterly flow regime may provide sufficient
effective shear for some storm organization, with one or more
clusters possible with a threat of damaging wind and perhaps some
hail.

...Southeast WY/northeast CO into central High Plains...
Moist low-level southeasterly flow is expected on Wednesday from
eastern CO/WY into the NE Panhandle and southeast WY. Moderate
destabilization will be possible during the afternoon within this
regime. While the region will initially be under the influence of an
upper-level ridge over the southern Rockies, guidance suggests
potential for a low-amplitude shortwave trough to crest the ridge
from WY into western SD. This will support potential for at least
isolated thunderstorm development.

Midlevel flow will be rather modest, but sufficient veering with
height will support sufficient effective shear for storm
organization, including some supercell potential with a threat of
large hail and localized severe gusts. A strengthening nocturnal
low-level jet could support some upscale growth, which could spread
at least isolated severe-gust potential into parts of southwest NE
and western KS.

...Upper Midwest...
While guidance varies regarding destabilization potential across
parts of the Upper Midwest, isolated storm development cannot be
ruled out across the region, within a northwesterly flow regime.
Moderate deep-layer shear would conditionally support strong to
severe storms if sufficient instability can be realized, but
confidence is too low to include probabilities for this potential at
this time.

..Dean.. 06/25/2024

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