AWUS01 KWNH 231733
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-232330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0492
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Central/Eastern NY into New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231730Z - 232330Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to broken areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, including some supercells, may pose
a localized threat for some flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A rather strong upper-level trough crossing through
the Great Lakes region continues to drive a cold front steadily
eastward toward the Northeast U.S. Strong diurnal heating and a
moist boundary layer out ahead of it has allowed for warm-sector
MLCAPE values to reach locally over 1500 J/kg across central and
eastern NY. This coupled with strong effective bulk shear
magnitudes of 40 to 50+ kts will be fostering the development of
well-organized convection, including supercells heading through
the afternoon hours across areas of eastern NY through VT/NH and
possibly into southwest ME.

While the dominant hazard attached to the convection will be
severe in nature (see latest SPC products), there is likely to be
a sufficient level of convective organization in conjunction with
anomalously high PWs for rainfall rates to be quite elevated with
the stronger convective cores, and especially any of the supercell
activity that does materialize over the next few hours.

The PW in the 12Z RAOB sounding from ALY was 1.89 inches, and
recent GPS-derived data continues to show PWs regionally on the
order of 1.75 to 1.90 inches, and these values are on the order of
2 to 3 standard deviations above normal.

The 12Z HREF guidance supports rainfall rates reaching locally as
high as 2 inches/hour with the stronger cells this afternoon, and
there is a threat for some more concentrated and repeated
convection over areas of VT/NH and possibly southwest ME where
there is also proximity of a warm front attempting to lift
northeastward ahead of the approaching upstream trough and
associated cold front. Generally this region is where the guidance
is the wettest with some spotty 2 to 4 inch rainfall amounts
suggested.

Given the elevated rainfall rate potential with this afternoon's
stronger and more organized convection, a few instances of flash
flooding cannot be ruled out. For some locations this may also
fall over areas that saw some locally heavy rain this morning
which will may help focus some runoff problems.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45197136 45027021 44536948 43946953 43517010 
            43167123 42817251 42897422 43337549 43907570 
            44247498 44397393 44777313 45047229 
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