ACUS02 KWNS 190544
SWODY2
SPC AC 190542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Storms may produce scattered damaging gusts over parts of the
Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe storms are also expected over
parts of the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will extend from the mid MS/OH Valley toward the Mid
Atlantic on Thursday, with an upper trough over the western states.
Moderate southwest flow aloft will stretch from the eastern Great
Basin into the northern Plains, with a stronger trough over Quebec.
This trough will flatten the ridge over the northeastern US, aiding
storm development during the day. Storms will also focus over the
central High Plains during the afternoon and evening, with rising
heights and increasing southerly 850 mb winds in a warm advection
regime. Elsewhere, the remnants of the potential tropical cyclone
will continue westward across portions of Mexico.

...Northeastern States...
Strong heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, removing any
convective inhibition by midday. Dewpoints into the upper 60s F
combined with slight cooling aloft due to the flattening ridge will
yield moderate instability with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Storms are
expected to form along a weak surface trough, where convergence will
be minimal but sufficient. The result should be an east-west
oriented zone of thunderstorms, mainly pulse to multicellular, with
potential for locally damaging winds. Small to marginally severe
hail may occur with the stronger cells. Given the relative
concentration of storms, a 15% Slight Risk appears warranted for
wind.

...Southeast WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle...
As the warm front lifts north, low-level moisture will increase
across NE, with easterly winds near the boundary bringing 50s F
dewpoints into southeast WY and far northeast CO as well. Strong
heating will yield convection forming over the high terrain, with
isolated severe cells expected during the late afternoon. Hail will
be possible initially, with a localized wind threat as activity bows
eastward near the boundary and into NE. A brief tornado cannot be
ruled out with the cellular activity early due to the steep lapse
rates and enhanced shear near the front.

...Far southern TX...
A few storms may linger early on Thursday as the remnants of the
potential tropical cyclone move farther inland into Mexico. The
combination of upper 70s F dewpoints and enhanced low-shear could
yield gusty winds, but overall any severe potential will dwindle
rapidly throughout the day.

..Jewell.. 06/19/2024

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