FOUS30 KWBC 120830
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 12 2024 - 12Z Thu Jun 13 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...

...Southern Florida...

Bands of heavy showers have set up to the east of a weak low
positioned offshore the Tampa Bay region and has been yielding
rainfall rates of 1 to 2 hours. This convection and intensity is
expected to persist into the morning hours. Areal averages of 1 to
3 inches will be common for central and southeast portions of the
the peninsula while the southwest side will be much wetter with 3
to 8 inches forecast. Isolated higher amounts may be possible
between Tampa Bay and the Everglades. A Slight Risk covers from 
Tampa Bay to Melbourne to points south and a Marginal Risk area
spans from central Florida and encompasses the Slight Risk.

...Texas...

Showers and thunderstorms will focus across central/eastern Texas
where the best lift and instability aligns with the pooled Gulf
moisture. Local rainfall totals likely within the 1-2 inch range  
with maxes closer to 3 inches. While amounts are on the lower end
the recent rains will have increased soil saturation thus lowering
the amount of rain needed to become problematic. The Marginal Risk
was maintained for an isolated threat for flooding concerns for 
portions of central and eastern Texas toward the Mid and Upper 
Coast.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...

Showers and thunderstorms will move through the Northern Plains and  
Upper Mississippi Valley ahead of an advancing cold front. PW
values of 1.5 inches over much of the north-central part of the
country will help boost rainfall efficiency and amounts, potentially 
spreading 1 to 3 inches over the sensitive area and may lead to 
isolated areas of flooding. The Marginal Risk area remains in
effect for portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa.

Campbell


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 13 2024 - 12Z Fri Jun 14 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...

...Florida...

Heavy rains near and south of a stalled front will persist adding
an additional 1 to 4 inches of rain to the already wet state. The
risk for flooding will remain elevated therefore maintained the Slight
Risk from Tampa Bay to Melbourne metros and south to the Keys and
the Marginal Risk area for central Florida.

...Midwest...

The central Midwest will see the pattern evolve upstream to 
overhead by Thursday afternoon and evening with a shortwave 
progression bisecting the region along with a cold front moving 
through on the base of a low moving through the northern Great 
Lakes in to Ontario. PW values around 1.25 inches will still be 
enough to help boost rainfall rates across the Midwest. Areal 
averages of 1 to 3 inches will be possible across this part of the 
country where recent rains have left soils nearly saturated. Rain 
may become excessive and lead to isolated instances flooding. The 
inherited Marginal Risk remains in good order and covers eastern 
Iowa/Missouri to southwest Michigan and northern Indiana.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 14 2024 - 12Z Sat Jun 15 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...

...South Florida...

The frontal boundary will begin to sink south as a cold front 
through central Florida during this period. Meanwhile tropical
moisture will persist across the state while now moving up the 
eastern Seaboard. Guidance suggests this period to be less wet than
the last few days however the areal averages for southern and 
central Florida are less than 2 inches. Given the multi-day heavy 
rain event the threat for excessive rainfall and flooding concerns 
will remain elevated for this period, therefore a Slight Risk 
continues for South Florida and a Marginal Risk for central 
Florida.

...Rockies and Plains...

Anomalous moisture over much of the Rockies and adjacent Plains
will migrate eastward with time as a low pressure system exits 
into the High Plains. Some higher QPF is expected near the higher
terrain of northeast New Mexico and eastern Colorado. Much Nebraska
and the surrounding area will have be near or north of the warm
front and could easily pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. A vast
majority of this region has 3-hr FFG near 1.5/2 inches however
there are very isolated locations as low as 0.25 inch. A Marginal
Risk is in effect from northeast New Mexico to Iowa/Minnesota/South
Dakota.

...New England...

The shortwave and associated cold front will sweep through the
Great Lakes region and lift through the Northeast during this
period. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread much of 
the Northeast however focusing the higher QPF values across 
southern New England where tropical moisture will be advecting
northward into the region. Guidance does show variance on the
location and the max value but consensus seems to favor southern
New Hampshire/Maine where FFG is as low as 1.5/2 inches at this 
time. Isolated instances of flooding may arise. A Marginal Risk
spans from southeast New York to Downeast Maine.


Campbell
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