FOUS30 KWBC 100857
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
457 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 10 2024 - 12Z Tue Jun 11 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE 
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND TEXAS, 
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

...Northern Plains...

The flash flooding threat remains lower-end Marginal across the 
Northern Plains. Some training storms are possible, which could 
cause isolated instances of flash flooding in flood-sensitive 
areas where local 1-hr FFG is as low as 1 inch. Areal averages 
will be up to 1.5 inches with very local 2 inches possible. This 
area could be considered for Marginal Risk removal with future 
updates.

...Southern High Plains...

A forming closed low straddling NM/TX border will slowly settle
east/southeast through the period and across the entire region
there should be fairly high moisture remaining in place (PWs
1.25-1.75" that will support scattered thunderstorms. Showers and
thunderstorms across the Southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains
may result in isolated to widely scattered areas of flash flooding
during this period. Recent rains will likely have increased soil 
sensitivity for new locations within this region thus maintaining 
a Marginal Risk area.
 
...South Florida...

With the frontal boundary stalled across the Southeast moisture 
will continue to advect northward across South Florida which will
increase convective coverage, particularly along the sea breeze 
fronts on both sides of the Peninsula. Any potential for flash
flooding will be limited given the ongoing moderate to locally 
severe drought. However, with the influx of moisture (PW values of
2-2.5 inches) and continued slow storm movement, possibly over 
urban areas, will result in isolated instances of flash flooding, 
and a bit further north up the Peninsula into portions of central 
Florida on Monday afternoon. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall
remains in effect for South Florida.

Campbell


Day 2 
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 11 2024 - 12Z Wed Jun 12 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN 
FLORIDA...

...Southern Florida...

Deep tropical moisture will continue to stream northward and pool 
over the state near the stalled frontal boundary which will 
continue to fuel the more widespread unsettled/stormy weather 
across the Keys and southern Florida. PWs are forecast to be well
above 2.5" and could approach daily max values by Wednesday. The
environment has the potential for slow moving storms capable of several
inches of rain along with intense rain rates. The Keys and
southwest portions of the peninsula will have the great risk for 
excessive rainfall and associated flash flooding, but the threat 
extends to the southeast coast and into portions of central Florida
as well. Widespread 1 to 3 inch totals with locally higher amounts
as high as 5 inches are possible on Tuesday. The guidance is in 
general agreement that the higher totals will be along the west 
coast from Ft. Meyers south. However, even the slightly lower 
forecast totals into the east coast could still cause local 
flooding concerns, particularly in urban areas.

...Southern Plains...

The shortwave will progress during this period shifting the
convection as well. This extra source of lift combined with
the very moist airmass pooled over the region will trigger
scattered to numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening hours. Areal average of 1 to 2 inches will be common with
isolated maxes nearing 3 inches will be possible. At this time the
Marginal Risk seems adequate for the level of risk but it is possible
that an upgrade to a targeted Slight Risk may be needed with 
future updates with more certainty and CAMs guidance pinpointing 
where the heaviest rainfall will be.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 12 2024 - 12Z Thu Jun 13 2024

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

...Southern Florida...

The stalled front is expected to be draped across northern Florida
while tropical air continues to amass over the region. PW values of
2/2+ inches will be on the order of 2.5-3 standard deviations above
the average for this period. Convection will be very efficient in
dumping several inches of rain across the nearly saturated rural
and urban areas of South Florida and the Keys. A Slight Risk for
Southern Florida and the Keys and a Marginal Risk for Central
Florida were maintained from the previous day 4. The nature of this
multi-day event with storm total rainfall amounts potentially 
rising into the double digits, there may be the need for an
upgrade in future updates.

...Texas...

Persistent convection associated with the shortwave moving across 
the Souther Plains will persist during this persist across east- 
central portions of the state. While amounts are on the lower end 
the recent rains will have increased soil saturation thus lowering 
the amount of rain needed to become problematic. A small Marginal 
Risk was maintained for the eastern Hill Country and points east 
for an elevated risk for excessive rainfall.

Campbell
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