AWUS01 KWNH 090943
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-091500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0412
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
542 AM EDT Sun Jun 09 2024

Areas affected...southern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, far
southeastern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090942Z - 091500Z

Summary...Another 2-4 inches of rainfall is expected through 15Z
across southern Missouri this morning.  Areas of flash flooding
(locally significant) remain likely.

Discussion...A mature MCS continues to make its way through the
discussion are this morning.  Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
continue with a warm-advection regime downstream of a surging
linear segment near Pittsburg, Kansas, with heavy rain and areas
of 2 inch/hr rain rates noted from Nevada to Bolivar to West
Plains.  The aforementioned axis was oriented favorably for
training while embedded in a steep-lapse-rate (~7-7.5 C/km)
environment with abundant moisture (2+ inch PW values). 
Convergence on the nose of 30-kt westerly 850mb flow also
continues to support ongoing activity, and multiple cell mergers
were noted per radar mosaic imagery over the past hour or so.

Models/observations continue to support a west-to-east translation
of ongoing convection over the next few hours, with heavy rainfall
(and local 2+ inch/hr rain rates continuing).  2-4 inch totals are
also likely through 15Z with this activity.  There is a risk of
training convection eventually making it to southeast Missouri/far
northeastern Arkansas during this timeframe as well.  The back end
of the heavier rainfall will likely approach the region from the
west in tandem with a convectively induced mid-level shortwave
trough currently centered near Hutchinson.  On its current trek,
the trough should clear most of the discussion area, reaching
the Jefferson City area by mid-morning (around 15Z).

Cook

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38479386 37909072 36928961 36118978 35689065 
            36679316 37149549 37469615 38069609 38469545 
            
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