ACUS02 KWNS 090600
SWODY2
SPC AC 090559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains.
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the
southern High Plains and Southeast.

...High Plains...
A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to
move eastward across the central and northern High Plains on Monday.
Ahead of the trough and cold front, a north-to-south corridor of
maximized low-level moisture will be in place by afternoon from
northern Nebraska into the western Dakotas. As a surface low deepens
across the central High Plains, low-level convergence is forecast to
increase ahead of the front. This, combined with large-scale ascent
associated with the trough, will likely support scattered
thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon from
western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Along and near
the moist axis, forecast soundings near Rapid City, SD at
00Z/Tuesday suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range,
moderate deep-layer shear will exist and 700-500 mb lapse rates will
be steep. This environment should be favorable for supercells with
isolated large hail. Also, forecast soundings have nearly dry
adiabatic lapse rates in the low-levels. This could contribute to a
potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger storms.

Further south into the southern High Plains, a north-to-south
corridor of instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. As
surface temperatures warm along this corridor, scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop from parts of eastern New Mexico
into west Texas. Although instability on Monday across much of the
southern High Plains is not forecast to be as strong as in areas
further to north, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level
lapse rates are forecast suggesting that a marginal severe threat
could develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and
strong wind gusts will be the primary threats.

...Southeast...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the southern and
central Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southward
across the Southeast. The front is forecast to be positioned from
southern Alabama into southern Georgia by afternoon. Along and south
of the boundary, warming surface temperatures and increasing
low-level convergence is expected to result in scattered
thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F
and steep low-level lapse rates should support a marginal
wind-damage threat. Some forecast soundings have inverted-V
signatures near the front Monday afternoon, which would contribute
to the potential for severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 06/09/2024

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