ACUS01 KWNS 311250
SWODY1
SPC AC 311248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX
TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be
possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High
Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the
Ark-La-Miss.

...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening...
An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move
southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with
some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some
hail (mainly west end of the MCS).  Other convection has formed
farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may
also pose an isolated large hail threat.  Once the convection moves
off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large
portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been
stabilized by convective overturning.  Thus, have opted to remove
some of the SLGT risk area across east TX.

Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface
heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel
trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm
coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern
AR.  Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface
heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few
semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing
isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two.

Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm
development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary
trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos.  Any
storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of
produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel
lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in
excess of 40 kt.

...Central/southern High Plains through tonight...
In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly
low-level flow are present across northeast CO.  A weak upslope
regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will
allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward
southeast CO).  Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support
supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds
will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters.
A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours
into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level
jet and associated warm advection.

..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024

$$
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