AWUS01 KWNH 300948
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-301545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0343
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
547 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the TX Panhandle into Northwest TX
and Southwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300945Z - 301545Z

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms this
morning may result in a few instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a couple
of relatively concentrated MCS clusters traversing the southern
High Plains from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle, and
separately down to the southeast over northwest TX and far
southwest OK. This convection has been generally tending to grow
in organization over the last couple of hours and is being
facilitated by the arrival of low-amplitude shortwave energy
arriving over the High Plains downstream of a broader upper trough
over the Western U.S.

This energy though is interacting with a broad warm air advection
regime with increasingly moist and unstable low-level south to
southeast flow seen advancing up across much of the southern
Plains region. With some low-level CIN in place, MLCAPE values are
on the order of 1500+ J/kg in the vicinity of these convective
clusters. The activity is also generally aligned north of a warm
front returning northward across western and central TX.

Over the next few hours, the aforementioned shortwave energy
should favor convective sustenance with both convective clusters
expected to drop generally southeastward into the persistent and
slowly veering moist/unstable low-level flow. The veering of the
low-level flow going through the mid-morning hours will be most
pronounced across areas of northwest TX and the TX Panhandle which
will be important as this will likely favor some convective
regeneration and potentially some repeating cell-activity around
the southern and southwest flanks of each convective cluster.
Outflow boundaries in time will likely become better defined which
in itself will also act as a catalyst for renewed convection.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms should reach 1 to 2
inches/hour, and some localized storm totals especially across
areas of northwest TX may reach 3 to 4 inches this morning since
portions of this region will likely see impacts from both
convective clusters. Some spillover of this convection through
southwest OK will be expected as well and locally heavy totals
possible here too.

Some localized 3-hour FFG exceedance is suggested in the 00Z/06Z
HREF guidance, and with the localized repeating nature of some of
the cells, a few localized instances of flash flooding will be
possible.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35340005 35049898 34559792 33979728 33139748 
            32869846 33009958 33490100 34040164 34840163 
            35250109 

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