AWUS01 KWNH 222115
FFGMPD
TXZ000-230215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0304
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
514 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Areas affected...west-central to central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222113Z - 230215Z

Summary...Thunderstorm will pose an isolated flash flood threat to
portions of west-central into central TX through 02Z. Rainfall
rates with areas of training and merging cells may exceed 2 in/hr,
producing spotty 3-5 inch totals through 02Z.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 21Z indicated widely
scattered thunderstorms including supercells just south of a cold
front and ahead of a dryline over central to west-central TX. The
environment across this region of TX, which includes the Hill
Country, was represented by impressive MLCAPE of 3000-5000 J/kg
with little to no CIN just ahead of the cold front and east of the
dryline but values of 50+ J/kg near San Antonio and parts of the
I-35 corridor via the 21Z SPC mesoanalysis. Precipitable water
values were 1.7 to 2.0 inches per recent GPS data and the 18Z FWD
sounding with plenty of shear for organized cells. Cell coverage
was expanding just north of the Colorado River across Coleman and
Brown into Mills counties with an average movement off toward the
east at 25-35 kt but with upstream regeneration promoting
MRMS-derived rainfall rates over 2 in/hr.

The recent expansion of cells over central TX and the potential
for cell training and merging of thunderstorms will carry the
potential for rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches in an hour or
less time over the next few hours. Little latitudinal movement of
the front is expected over the next few hours but cold pool
development and some further upstream convective development
anticipated in the direction of the triple point combined with the
general eastward cell movement will favor some isolated locations
with potential for 3-5 inch totals through 02Z. Flash flooding
will be possible, especially with overlap of sensitive terrain in
the Hill Country.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32249880 32029699 30789661 30239796 30170001 
            30160124 30310223 30990157 31670147 32040059 
            

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