AT2k Design BBS Message Area
Casually read the BBS message area using an easy to use interface. Messages are categorized exactly like they are on the BBS. You may post new messages or reply to existing messages! You are not logged in. Login here for full access privileges. |
Previous Message | Next Message | Back to General Weather-related Discussi... <-- <--- | Return to Home Page |
|
||||||
From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
Mike Powell | All | MESO: Heavy Rain/Flood OK |
May 16, 2024 7:56 AM * |
|||
AWUS01 KWNH 161223 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-161700- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0273 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 822 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...Parts of Oklahoma Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 161221Z - 161700Z Summary...Thunderstorms blossoming along an elevated convergence boundary will expand and move slowly through the morning. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr will be common, with brief 3"/hr rates also possible. This could result in 2-3" of rain and instances of flash flooding. Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning indicates a stripe of intensifying showers and thunderstorms draped NE to SW across Oklahoma. This convection is developing along the nose of the LLJ which is analyzed by the SPC RAP and measured via VWPs at PSF and TUL to be 30-35 kts. This LLJ is resupplying favorable thermodynamics northward noted by a ribbon of elevated PWs reaching 1.3 inches as measured by GPS, and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. These robust thermodynamics are aligning favorably along the elevated convergence boundary/LLJ nose, which is leading to the rapid growth of convection along the boundary itself. Radar estimated rainfall rates from KTLX have reached 2-3"/hr, and this has resulted in one ongoing FFW already this morning. The high-res models are initializing with coverage that is much too low, leading to lower than typical confidence of the evolution in the next few hours. However, the continued LLJ, despite slow veering, should maintain thermodynamic transport into the elevated front, which will allow convection to persist. At the same time, synoptic forcing through mid-level divergence and increasing upper level diffluence should additionally contribute ascent, and it is probable thunderstorms will expand and maintain for several hours until the core of the LLJ shifts east by early this aftn. Until this occurs, however, rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr, locally as high as 3"/hr are possible, as forecast by HREF exceedance probabilities despite the struggling CAMs. These rainfall rates could produce 2-3" of rain in a short period of time as the Corfidi vectors veer to the north/northeast and collapse to just 5 kts, indicating the potential for nearly stationary thunderstorms at times. Bulk shear is modest, and the corridor of higher moisture/instability is narrow, so residence times of any individual cell should be modest, but this rainfall could still be sufficient to produce rapid runoff. FFG across the area is elevated at around 2-2.5"/3hrs thanks to normal to below-normal 7-day rainfall noted in AHPS. However, the nearly stationary movement of the intense rain rates could still overcome this, even though HREF exceedance probabilities for 3-hr FFG are only 10-20%. This suggests at least an isolated threat for flash flooding through the morning hours. Weiss ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36849605 36679527 36279512 36059568 35909621 35529705 34909769 34479803 34269879 34159923 34389972 34939990 35749913 36499749 36629707 = = = --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) |
||||||
|
Previous Message | Next Message | Back to General Weather-related Discussi... <-- <--- | Return to Home Page |
Execution Time: 0.0177 seconds If you experience any problems with this website or need help, contact the webmaster. VADV-PHP Copyright © 2002-2024 Steve Winn, Aspect Technologies. All Rights Reserved. Virtual Advanced Copyright © 1995-1997 Roland De Graaf. |