ACUS02 KWNS 160600
SWODY2
SPC AC 160559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND
WESTERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from far southeast Texas into much
of Louisiana, central/southern Mississippi, and western Alabama on
Friday.

...East/Southeast TX and Southeast OK through the Lower MS Valley
and into the TN Valley/Southeast...
A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the
Lower MO Valley southwestward through central OK and Far West TX and
into northeast Mexico early Friday morning. A belt of moderate to
strong southwesterly flow aloft will likely extend through the base
of this shortwave, from northeast Mexico through east/southeast TX
and the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley/Southeast. This belt of
stronger flow will persist throughout much of the day as its parent
shortwave trough shifts eastward/northeastward.

Surface pattern preceding this shortwave will be significantly more
uncertain, largely resulting from uncertainty related to the timing
and strength of an early morning MCS forecast to move from the Lower
MS Valley across the central/southern MS and AL. This MCS will
likely lead an outflow boundary in its wake, which could then return
northward throughout the day amid modest low-level moisture
advection. This scenario is supported by much of the guidance.
However, if/when any development occurs along and south of this
boundary during the afternoon/evening is less clear, likely a result
of poor synoptic support and predominantly mesoscale factors
contributing to additional initiation. Strong buoyancy and shear
suggest that any storms that do develop should  quickly become
severe, with large to very large hail as the primary threat. Weak
low-level flow should keep the tornado threat low, but still
non-zero given the likely supercell mode.

Height falls should reach the Lower MS Valley late Friday
night/early Saturday morning, with around round of thunderstorms
likely given that earlier activity is unlikely to overturn the
airmass. These storms could evolve into a convective line that would
then track quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast, with
damaging gusts as the primary risk.

...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
A northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
northern Rockies on Friday, reaching the northern High Plains by
early Saturday morning. An attendant surface low will move eastward
just ahead of the shortwave, moving across southern Saskatchewan and
Manitoba. Surface lee troughing will sharpen ahead of the shortwave
trough as well, with cyclogenesis anticipated across western SD by
the late afternoon. A cold front will extend between these two
surface lows, progressing eastward/southeastward across the Dakotas
and into western MN from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday
morning.

Buoyancy ahead of this cold front will be modest, supported
predominantly by cool mid-level temperatures atop a warm and deeply
mixed boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the cold front, with strong outflow possible. Upscale
growth is anticipated, as amalgamation of storm outflows occurs
quickly. Strengthening westerly flow aloft will foster fast storm
motion and the potential for some damaging wind gusts as the
convective line moves eastward across the Dakotas.

..Mosier.. 05/16/2024

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