ACUS02 KWNS 150602
SWODY2
SPC AC 150600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas South
Plains across north/central Texas and into east/southeast Texas on
Thursday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across
portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley...
A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward
across the Southwest/northern Mexico and into the southern Plains on
Thursday. Strong mid-level flow will likely exist throughout the
base of this trough, spreading eastward across TX and into the Lower
MS Valley ahead of the wave. Surface pattern preceding this
shortwave trough could be complicated by antecedent precipitation
and associated outflow, but the general expectation is for a weak
cold front to extend from southeast KS southwestward across central
OK and the TX South Plains to another surface low over the TX
Trans-Pecos. A warm front is expected to extend southeastward for
this low, separating the upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints across south TX
and the TX Coastal Plains from the lower 60s dewpoints from
west/southwest TX into the Lower MS Valley.

Thunderstorm development appears likely along and north of the warm
front by the early afternoon, supported by moderate warm-air
advection across the warm sector. Isolated hail is possible within
the strongest of these storms. Persistence of these showers and
thunderstorms should preclude the warm front from making substantial
northward progress, with the boundary likely sharpening throughout
the morning and into the afternoon. Strong low-level moisture
advection is anticipated within the warm sector, with upper 60s/low
70s dewpoints reaching into much of central TX/TX Hill Country by
the early afternoon and into southwest TX by the late afternoon.
This ample low-level moisture will result in strong buoyancy
throughout the warm sector. Strengthening mid-level flow is also
anticipated, with the resulting environment capable of severe
thunderstorms.

Initiation appears most likely in the vicinity of the surface low
across southwest TX, with some chance for additional storms near a
secondary surface low over the TX Big Country as well as along the
boundary between these two features. A supercellular mode is
probable, with strong and organized updrafts capable of producing
large to very large hail, strong gusts, and a tornado or two. Late
afternoon development is also possible across southeast NM,
supported by the approaching shortwave trough. Hail and damaging
gust are the main threats with these storms. Some eventual upscale
growth is possible amid both cold pool amalgamation and increasing
large-scale ascent. The resulting convective line would likely move
across north/central TX with a attendant threat for damaging gusts.

Warm-air advection may also result in the development of
thunderstorms across southeast TX. There is some chance these storms
begin developing far enough within the warm sector to still be
surface-based once they mature. This would result in secondary
corridor with slightly higher tornado potential. However, this is a
low predictability scenario, which precludes the need for higher
probabilities with this outlook.

...Mid MS Valley...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the region
early Thursday morning before continuing northeastward and
weakening. Heating in the wake of this early morning activity is
expected to result in limited convective inhibition and moderate
buoyancy by the afternoon. Convergence along a weak cold front and
associated frontal low may result in thunderstorm development. An
outflow boundary from the morning storms may also exist, providing
another area for low-level convergence and storm initiation.
Moderate westerly flow aloft could support a few stronger storms
capable of large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado.

..Mosier.. 05/15/2024

$$
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