ACUS01 KWNS 221243
SWODY1
SPC AC 221242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A well-amplified mid/upper-level pattern features synoptic-scale
cyclones on either side of the CONUS:

1.  In the East, the cyclone core is elongated west-southwest/east-
northeast from WV to southern New England, occasionally exhibiting
two centers at 500 mb.  This cyclone should pivot offshore
gradually, with a more consolidated center south of RI and east of
NJ by 12Z tomorrow.  Associated thunder tonight should remain
offshore.

2.  For the Pacific cyclone, a double center was evident as well,
with the strongest, closest, and most important one being near
45N131W.  This is becoming the primary low as the other one well to
the west devolves into an open shortwave trough.  The eastern low
should pivot northward, offshore from the Northwest Coast, toward
Vancouver Island.  Meanwhile, a series of small shortwaves and
vorticity lobes will move ashore in the preceding southwest flow,
predominantly this afternoon through tonight -- each contributing
shots of cooling/destabilization aloft, and atop the weakly unstable
marine air mass.  Forecast soundings accordingly suggest that the
midlevel inversion should rise/cool such that modest buoyancy
(overland MUCAPE generally under 250 J/kg) extends upward into icing
layers suitable for at least isolated/brief lightning, especially
from around 00Z onward.  A few thunderstorms are possible near the
coast, as well as embedded in the deep low/middle-level moisture
fetch impinging on higher terrain in northern CA.

..Edwards.. 11/22/2024

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