AWUS01 KWNH 031802
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-040000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0112
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
201 PM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Arklatex into the Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031800Z - 040000Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms should tend to expand in
coverage this afternoon and become locally concentrated over parts
of the Arklatex region and into the adjacent areas of the
Mid-South. Areas of flash flooding are likely, and locally
significant impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A deep layer trough over the Four Corners region
continues to channel a strong upper-level jet along with embedded
vort energy out across the southern Plains and toward the broader
lower MS Valley region. Early morning convective clusters have
advanced well off to the east-northeast, but the upstream energy
this afternoon will be continuing to interact with a moist and
increasingly unstable airmass pooled across eastern TX and through
the lower MS Valley in close proximity to a frontal zone. The
result will be redeveloping and expanding coverage of heavy
showers and thunderstorms.

The latest surface analysis shows a wave of low pressure lifting
through northeast TX which will be gradually lifting off to the
east-northeast over the next several hours along the
aforementioned front. A southerly low-level jet of 40 to 50 kts
will be in place ahead of this low center, and there will be a
corridor of strong low-level moisture convergence that will
facilitate upscale growth of convection that will likely become
locally concentrated and focused by later this afternoon. Strong
instability near and south of the front with MLCAPE values of 2000
to 3000 J/kg and rather strong shear parameters will also be key
ingredients for organized convection.

Recent runs of the HRRR guidance along with the 12Z NSSL-MPAS
guidance suggests areas of far northeast TX and southern AR will
tend to be the primary focus for heavy rainfall going through
early this evening, with convection potentially also training over
the same area. Rainfall rates with the stronger storms may reach
as high as 2.5 inches/hour. Some of these rains though will also
be advancing into downstream areas of the Mid-South currently
covered by MPD #111.

Some additional storm totals by early this evening may reach as
high as 3 to 5 inches, and especially where any cell-training
occurs. Given the wet antecedent conditions overall and additional
totals, flash flooding is likely, and there may be some locally
significant impacts which will include an enhanced urban flash
flood concern.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35179115 34908998 34408966 33959007 33539089 
            33129221 32779322 32199434 32069546 32639606 
            33479549 34449410 35039273 

$$
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