ACUS02 KWNS 021731
SWODY2
SPC AC 021730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a
broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley
to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts
and hail are the primary risks. The greatest large hail and tornado
threat (potentially strong) exists from the ArkLaTex to western Tennessee.

...Synopsis...
An elongated frontal zone will provide a focus for a severe weather
threat on Thursday from West Texas to the Mid-Atlantic. Ongoing
convection of varying intensity will likely be ongoing with its
outflow modulating the composite frontal location along this zone.
As a mid-level trough amplifies across the southwestern CONUS,
mid-level ridging will strengthen across the eastern CONUS with
height rises across much of the warm sector. A low-level jet will
intensify through the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley through the
day and should provide enough synoptic ascent for scattered severe
storms Thursday afternoon and evening from the ArkLatex to western Tennessee.

...West Texas to North Texas...
Ongoing strong to severe storms are possible Thursday morning along
and south of the Red River from Northwest Texas to north-central
Texas. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and very strong effective shear
(80+ knots) will support the potential for supercells capable of
large hail and some severe wind gusts. This threat will wane by mid
day as the low-level jet veers and weakens across North Texas and
southern Oklahoma.

Late Thursday night and into Friday morning, the low-level jet is
expected to strengthen across central Texas as the larger-scale
mid-level trough starts to advance eastward with a lead impulse
likely to move across West Texas between 06Z and 12Z. RAP forecast
soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess
of 2500 J/kg across portions of northwest and West Texas as the
synoptic scale forcing strengthens. Therefore, several supercells
capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected between 06Z and 12Z across portions of West Texas and
Northwest Texas.

...ArkLatex to Western Tennessee...
An outflow boundary from Day 1/Wednesday convection will likely be
located somewhere near the LA/AR border at 12Z Thursday. This
boundary will start to mix north into southern Arkansas and
northeast Texas as a warm front through the day. A strengthening
low-level jet, particularly after 18Z, should provide ample forcing
for supercell development in the vicinity of this warm front during
the afternoon/evening hours. Strong to potentially extreme
instability is anticipated south of this boundary amid a rich
theta-e airmass. Any of these supercells will have the potential for
large to potentially very large hail. Any supercells which can
remain along or south of the warm front will pose a threat for all
severe hazards including the potential for strong tornadoes.
However, this threat is conditional on surface-based supercell
residence time. Farther northeast into western Tennessee, northward
recovery of the warm front remains more uncertain as the cold
pool/convection from day 1 may persist through the morning. However,
if the warm front can mix north into western Tennessee, higher
tornado probabilities could be needed at a later time.

...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic...
Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe
weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to
the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio
River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist
airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant
outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some
storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots
of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises
should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially
scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado
threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact
locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time.

..Bentley.. 04/02/2025

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