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From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
Mike Powell | All | DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic |
November 19, 2024 10:15 AM * |
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ACUS02 KWNS 190551 SWODY2 SPC AC 190550 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a deep upper trough will extend from a low over northern MN southward toward the Ozarks, and will pivot northeast across the OH Valley and Midwestern states, becoming negatively tilted. A tight midlevel temperature gradient and 130 kt speed max will relax somewhat through 00Z. Then, a secondary strong speed max will develop overnight from the mid MS Valley into the southern Appalachians. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will gradually move east toward the Rockies, with resulting northwest flow regime across the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched from the Rockies into the central and southern Plains, and extending into the Gulf of Mexico where strong offshore flow will exist. A low will develop near Lake Erie during the day, with the cold front pushing into the Mid Atlantic to the Carolinas late in the day. ...Carolinas... Low-level moisture with 60s F dewpoints will spread north across the eastern Carolinas and into southeast VA through 00Z ahead of the cold front. Deep-layer shear will increase as the upper trough swings east, with very weak instability developing. Forecast soundings indicate poor low-level lapse rates/heating, with substantial midlevel drying. In addition, a prominent subsidence inversion is present in several model depictions. Given a lack of appreciable low-level flow fields to support wind gusts, strong storms are not expected. ...Florida... Area of thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early on Wednesday, with a plume of instability ahead of a cold front. While some of this activity will move across the Peninsula, it appears the boundary layer will be relatively cool. As such, despite the moderate low-level SRH during the morning along the western coasts, most of it should be rendered in-effective. ...Ohio and Vicinity... A very strong vorticity maximum will travel east across IN, OH, the upper OH Valley and into western PA and Lake Erie on Wednesday. Large-scale ascent will be strong, with rapidly cooling temperatures aloft. Shallow convection may develop with limited heating along the cold front, which will itself result in gusty winds with 30 kt ambient flow just off the surface. While severe storms are unlikely, a flash or two cannot be ruled out given such cool temperatures aloft. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Strong cooling aloft on the north size of a midlevel temperature gradient will exist over northwest OR into western WA with a slowly weakening midlevel jet. Weak low-level CAPE will develop mainly over the water. However, some cams show low-topped storms possibly moving ashore, and wind shear will be strong. While locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, the severe risk appears low at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/19/2024 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) |
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