MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 030247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030246=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-030415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Indiana into western Ohio

Concerning...Tornado Watch 103...

Valid 030246Z - 030415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues.

SUMMARY...An organized MCS capable of producing swaths of severe
wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will continue tracking eastward
across eastern Indiana into western Ohio.

DISCUSSION...A NNE/SSW-oriented MCS (with embedded supercells) is
tracking eastward across eastern IN into western OH -- with the
northern portion of the line moving at 60 kt and southern part at 45
kt. This system has a history of producing destructive wind gusts
and embedded tornadoes. Ahead of these storms, the ILN VWP is
sampling an 80-kt low-level jet (at 2 km AGL), which combined with
moist/unstable inflow (lower/middle 60s dewpoints -- higher farther
south), should support its maintenance with eastward extent
(especially the southern portion of the line where instability is
greater). The primary concern with this activity continues to be
swaths of severe wind gusts (generally 70-80 mph) and embedded
tornadoes, given around 60 kt of 0-1 km shear/550 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH
(per ILN VWP). With a west-southwesterly deep-layer shear vector,
any NNW/SSE-oriented portions of the line will pose the greatest
risk of severe wind and tornadoes.

..Weinman.. 04/03/2025

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   39348417 39008469 38868540 38778609 38868637 39098637
            40218541 40468526 40858503 40938436 40868401 40708367
            40228364 39818379 39348417=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

$$

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 030254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030253=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-030500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0369
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...parts of wrn and middle TN...wrn and central
KY...adjacent sern IN...swrn OH

Concerning...Tornado Watch 102...98...

Valid 030253Z - 030500Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 102, 98 continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for strong, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps
a few tornadoes, appears likely to persist with a line of storms
overspreading the Ohio River vicinity, including the Greater
Louisville into Cincinnati vicinities, through midnight-1 AM EDT.=20
Trends are being monitored for the possibility of additional watches
to the east of Tornado Watches 102 and 103.

DISCUSSION...Northeast of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio
Rivers, through the lower Ohio River vicinity, boundary-layer
instability remains weaker due to more marginal boundary-layer dew
points and weak mid/upper-level lapse rates.  Forecast soundings
suggest that CAPE (perhaps on the order of 500-1000 J/kg) may be
largely confined to the 850-500 mb layer, perhaps aided by steeper
lapse rates associated with a remnant elevated mixed-layer.  Given
the intense lower/mid-tropospheric jet streak (including 60-80+ kt
southwesterly
within this layer) now overspreading this region,
profiles still appear conducive to the downward transfer of damaging
gusts to the surface in the heavier rain cores.

Continuing tornadic potential remains more unclear with stronger
convection becoming undercut by the surface cold pool.  However,
given a saturated near surface-layer with at least moist adiabatic
lapse rates, and the strong to extreme nature of the low-level
shear, meso-vortices with enhanced wind damage, and perhaps tornado,
potential may persist into the 04-06Z time frame.

..Kerr.. 04/03/2025

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37508739 38628634 39158547 39048393 37078553 35028891
            35478959 37508739=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

$$
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