MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 022309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022309 
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-030115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...parts of middle Tennessee through central Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 022309Z - 030115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for strong to severe convection, including
supercells, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes may
increase through 9-11 PM EDT.  Trends are being monitored for the
possibility of a watch.

DISCUSSION...A clustering of discrete thunderstorm development,
likely supported by forcing associated with broad low-level warm
advection, and perhaps a weak perturbation within the strong
southwesterly flow aloft, probably will continue developing
northeastward within a slowly moistening boundary layer across the
Mid South into lower Ohio Valley.  This activity still appears
embedded within a broadly anticyclonic low-level regime across
northwestern Mississippi through western and middle Tennessee, but
the Rapid Refresh suggests that surface pressure falls may lead to
weak troughing across south central through east central Kentucky by
01-02Z.  It appears that this will coincide with substantive further
strengthening of low-level flow (50-70+ kt around 850 mb).  If
inhibition does not become suppressive to convection, with the onset
of diurnal cooling, the risk for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts
may increase through mid to late evening.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/02/2025

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36878779 38178619 38378477 37758348 36328495 35538598
            34958768 36238809 36878779 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)