ACUS02 KWNS 170655
SWODY2
SPC AC 170654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern
Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is
expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and
evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley...
A negatively-tilted mid-level trough is forecast to be in the
southern High Plains at the start of the period. A squall-line is
expected to be ongoing ahead of the trough at 12Z from central and
north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Along the leading edge of this
organized linear MCS, a wind-damage threat is expected Monday
morning. A tornado will also be possible with any rotating element
within the line. The line is expected to weaken by midday as the
mid-level trough moves away to the northeast, with the associated
low moving into the central Plains. As surface heating takes place,
additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon across parts of the southern and central Plains. Isolated
severe gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger cells.
Ahead of the trough, an isolated wind-damage and/or tornado threat
may develop across the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks during the
late afternoon. The severe threat is expected to be marginal due to
very weak instability.

...Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley...
In the wake of the mid-level trough, southwesterly mid-level flow
will be in place across the western Gulf Coast states on Monday. A
moist and unstable airmass is forecast to move from far southeast
Texas late Monday afternoon into southern Louisiana during the
evening. Thunderstorms will likely develop across much of the Lower
Mississippi Valley, as low-level flow increases in the evening.
Model consensus suggests that MCS development will be likely across
parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. A relatively large number of
storms should help to overturn much of the airmass. Also, the
stronger mid-level flow is forecast to remain well to the north,
suggesting that any wind-damage threat associated with the MCS
should be marginal.

..Broyles.. 11/17/2024

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