ACUS02 KWNS 160657
SWODY2
SPC AC 160655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through
daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a
tornado or two.

...Southern High Plains...
A mid-level low and an associated trough will move into northern
Mexico on Sunday, reaching the southern High Plains Sunday night.
Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will occur across the
southern Plains. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase in the
50s F across parts of west and northwest Texas, and into the 60s F
across much of west-central and north-central Texas. A large area of
convection is expected to develop by early Sunday evening ahead of
the trough from southeast New Mexico into parts of far west and
west-central Texas. This will occur as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet
strengthens across the southern High Plains. Aided by strong
large-scale ascent, and a rapid low-level jet response, scattered
strong to severe storms are expected to develop over parts of the
southern High Plains. Model forecasts are in relatively good
agreement, showing potential for MCS development late Sunday evening
into Sunday night.

Although instability will remain weak ahead of the system, a steady
ramp up of instability and low-level moisture is expected over the
southern Plains. Between 03Z and 09Z on Sunday evening, ECMWF
forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range
over parts of west-central and northwest Texas. This suggests that
the severe threat that develops with the MCS should continue into
the overnight period. The current thinking is that a line of strong
to severe storms will become organized and move across west-central
and northwest Texas from late Sunday evening into the overnight. The
primary mode is expected to be linear, although isolated discrete
supercells, with tornado potential, may develop ahead of the line.
Otherwise, the primary threat should be for severe gusts along the
leading edge of a quasi-linear convective system. The severe threat
may continue to the end of the period, as a band of focused
large-scale ascent couples with a strong low-level jet to maintain
strong convective development with the MCS.

..Broyles.. 11/16/2024

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